In the icy wilderness of Siberia, where the land lies frozen for most of the year and silence stretches across the tundra, something strange and violent has been happening. Since 2012, enormous craters—some plunging more than 160 feet deep—have appeared in the permafrost of the Yamal and Gydan peninsulas. These are not the slow, weathered depressions of erosion or melting ice. They are sudden scars, blasted into the Earth by explosive force, with chunks of soil and ice hurled hundreds of feet into the air.
The first reports left both scientists and local communities bewildered. What could cause the Earth itself to erupt in such a dramatic way? Meteorites? Alien activity? Some unknown geological process? The mystery captured global attention and spurred more than a decade of research.
Now, a new study offers the clearest explanation yet—and it links these giant gas emission craters (GECs) to a perfect storm of geology, climate change, and natural gas dynamics unique to this corner of the Arctic.
A Mystery of Place
The Arctic is full of permafrost—vast frozen soils and sediments that have held their icy grip for tens of thousands of years. And yet, these explosive craters seem to occur only in a very specific region of Western Siberia. Why here, and not in Canada, Alaska, or elsewhere across the circumpolar north?
This question has puzzled scientists since the first crater was spotted from a helicopter in 2012. The Yamal Peninsula, whose name fittingly translates to “end of the world,” quickly became the center of attention. Dozens of craters have since been identified, and local reindeer herders and gas industry workers have reported mysterious blasts in the tundra.
But despite years of speculation—ranging from methane explosions to underground ice collapses—no single theory could fully explain why the craters appear suddenly, why they are explosive, and why they are restricted to this one region.
A New Model Emerges
That’s where the work of Helge Hellevang, an environmental geoscientist at the University of Oslo, and his colleagues comes in. Their research, published in Science of the Total Environment, combines geological data, past research, and advanced numerical calculations to build a new conceptual model of how GECs form.
At the heart of their explanation is natural gas—specifically, the vast reserves of methane that lie beneath Siberia’s permafrost. Yamal and Gydan are some of the richest natural gas provinces on Earth, with hydrocarbons rising from deep underground over geological time.
According to the model, gas and heat seep upward through cracks and faults. This rising warmth thins the frozen “lid” of permafrost that usually traps gas beneath it. Meanwhile, methane accumulates below. The result is a pressurized chamber, like a balloon slowly filling beneath the frozen soil.
As climate change accelerates Arctic warming, the permafrost weakens even further. What was once a thick, reliable seal becomes fragile and unstable. At some point, the pressure is too much to contain. The lid bursts in a violent explosion, ejecting ice, soil, and rock, and leaving behind a yawning crater in the tundra.
The Role of Climate Change
The study makes it clear: while gas seepage is a natural process, climate change is making these explosions more likely. The Arctic is warming at more than four times the global average. Each degree of warming accelerates the thawing of permafrost, undermining the stability of the frozen seal.
This means that GECs may not be a new phenomenon at all—they may have formed in the distant past but remained rare and unnoticed. What makes them alarming today is the combination of warming temperatures and the unique gas-rich geology of Siberia, which together create a perfect recipe for explosive craters.
Hidden in Plain Sight
Another intriguing possibility raised by Hellevang and his team is that these craters might actually be more common than we realize. After their initial explosive formation, craters quickly begin to change. Water seeps in, filling the depression. Sediments collapse from the sides. Within months or years, what was once a fresh crater can resemble a perfectly ordinary Arctic lake.
This suggests that many GECs may be hiding in plain sight, misidentified as thermokarst lakes formed by the gradual melting of ice-rich permafrost. If true, the landscape of Siberia may hold far more explosive scars than scientists have yet recognized.
Why This Matters
At first glance, the appearance of craters in a remote Siberian tundra might seem like an obscure scientific curiosity. But the implications ripple far beyond.
First, these explosions are a dramatic reminder of how climate change interacts with the Earth’s natural systems in unexpected ways. They show that warming is not just about gradual sea-level rise or melting ice—it can also trigger violent, unpredictable geological processes.
Second, methane is a powerful greenhouse gas, more than 25 times stronger than carbon dioxide at trapping heat in the atmosphere. Each crater that blasts open may release vast amounts of methane, further accelerating global warming in a dangerous feedback loop.
Finally, the presence of explosive craters has practical consequences. Siberia’s natural gas fields are vital for global energy markets, and infrastructure such as pipelines, drilling platforms, and communities could be threatened if similar explosions occur near inhabited or industrial areas.
The Next Steps in Research
Hellevang and his colleagues emphasize that their model is still a beginning. To confirm their explanation, scientists need extensive fieldwork, drilling, and computer simulations. They must map the subsurface gas pathways, measure permafrost thickness in detail, and determine how much methane is actually released during an explosion.
The challenge, of course, is the remoteness and harshness of the Siberian tundra. The Yamal and Gydan peninsulas are among the least accessible places on Earth, where logistics are as challenging as the science itself. Yet solving this mystery is more urgent than ever, as the Arctic warms and permafrost destabilizes.
A Glimpse Into the Future
The exploding craters of Siberia are a stark warning that the frozen north is not as stable as it once seemed. They remind us that permafrost is not just frozen dirt—it is an active system, deeply intertwined with geology, gas reserves, and global climate.
If the new model is correct, we may see more craters in the years ahead. Some may remain hidden as lakes, while others may explode with terrifying force. Either way, they are part of a story much larger than Siberia itself: a story about how a warming planet awakens ancient forces locked beneath the ice.
In that sense, every crater is both a mystery solved and a message sent. It tells us that the Earth is changing faster than we imagined—and that in the frozen silence of the Arctic, the ground can quite literally erupt beneath our feet.
More information: Helge Hellevang et al, Formation of giant Siberian gas emission craters (GECs), Science of The Total Environment (2025). DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.180042
